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The
Global Economic Crisis and
It’s Impact on the Korean Society - Part II by
Professor Yang-Taek Lim College
of Economics and Finance, Editor’s Note: This paper is divided into two segments, the first of which,
presented in the previous November-December 2011 edition of the Journal,
offered an overview of the recent and on-going global economic situation (c.
2008-present). The second segment, which is presented below, specifically
addresses the current economic situation in IV. Korea’s Socioeconomic Crisis Nowadays,
1.
‘MBnomics’ Missing When
the financial crisis hit Examples
of disagreement among financial departments are as follows: first, the process
of the government’s intervention on exchange rate fluctuations. Second, the process
of a negotiation on a take-over of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. by the Korea
Development Bank. Third, the process of HSBC’s giving up on a take-over of
Korea Exchange Bank. Fourth, failure to issue foreign exchange stabilization
bonds. The
reason why authorities could not make smooth agreements like the examples given
above was that each authority had different perspectives on the economic
situation at that time. Even President Secretary for Because
authorities had thoughts about the economy so different from one another, it
was obvious that economic policies were incoherent as well. For instance, the
government asked the BOK to purchase 25 trillion won of bank bonds to lower
interest rates. Minister Kang at the time said that the government was planning
to discuss a purchase of bank bonds with BOK at the government audit. BOK
quickly clarified their statement, saying “The purchase of bank bonds is just
one of plans we have in case the recent crisis worsens”. Even
personal opinions of authorities differ from one another. In case of regulations
on loans on real property, Minister Kang called LVT and DTI ‘appropriate’ at
inspection of the administration. However, the government made it known that it
would relax regulations only 15 days later. Minister Kang also said, “Domestic
financial companies are maintaining a sound level of international liquidity”
at a briefing after a meeting with financial ministers concerning the financial
crisis on September 20th, 2008. Unlike Kang’s statement, many banks at the time
were busy searching for overnight money due to a shortage of foreign currency.
About 2 weeks later, Kang ordered banks to seek measures to save themselves to
solve the problem of liquidity deficit. (October, 27th, 2008) Head
of the Monetary Policy Committee Kwang-Woo Jun predicted that the financial
market would become stable anytime soon at the state affairs committee held shortly
after the break out of the crisis. The ground on which this prediction was
based was the fact that the liquidity was relatively sufficient. In the end,
Jun changed his words and admitted the ripple effect of the crisis may be more
severe than that of 10 years ago. President Lee and Minister Kang also showed
their relatively positive perspective on the current situation, saying “It is
not too serious”. President Lee even said during a speech he gave on a radio,
“Things may be tough, but it’s a lot different from the crisis in 1997”. Then
he as well changed his words and said at a luncheon with police commanders,
“Now is more serious than the IMF crisis”. The
Financial Services Commission has also worsened the situation. When the world’s
largest bank, HSBC, offered a take-over of KEB, the commission rejected it on
the pretext of the Lone Star Funds, which it did not have anything to do with.
Moreover, it permitted the establishment of eight stock firms in spite of the
plunging stock market. President of KDB Yu-Sung Min at that time said, “We
proceeded M&A of Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. in partnership with the
financial services commission under a judgment that it would promote the
national interest”. He added, “Although the M&A this time did not turn out
to be successful, we will be more aggressive about acquisition of foreign
investment banks”. (Joong-Ang Ilbo, September 17th, 2008) Unfortunately, his
ambition to take over foreign investment banks was just dangerous arrogance,
considering the unstable capital structure of It
would not be an exaggeration to say that misjudgment and ever-changing
statements of authorities have been generating distrust. Authorities have
damaged trust themselves by making thoughtless remarks and easily changing
them. Functional
integration and rational management of financial departments are urgently
needed. Functions of economic policies are being divided into parts and
separated under a purpose of heightening the efficiency of financial
supervisory operation. International financial policy has been allocated to the
Ministry of Strategy and Finance, establishment of domestic financial monetary
policies and inspection of financial institutions were put in charge of the
Financial Services Commission. Also, monetary policy, adjustment of interest
rates, and exchange control have become a responsibility of the BOK. Even in
times of capital decontrol, international finance and domestic finance are
working independently rather than working together. For
stable monetary function of both domestic and foreign finance, the three
policies mentioned previously need to be integrated. In addition, the role of
the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs is essential for maintenance of
harmonious policies. Government financial departments must devote all their
energy to set and operate a complementary circulation structure of real and
financial sector. Economic
policies of the Korean government are in a dilemma right now; choosing between
long-term supply and short-term demand, increasing and decreasing interest
rates, and increasing and decreasing exchange rates. In
this situation, the Korean government chose price control, which could not
work. Enforcement of a ‘MB price index’, which controls 52 kinds of daily
necessities, makes me feel like I have gone back to 1970’s. Neither
a sharp drop nor a rise in exchange rates are desirable. It’s because rising
exchange rates can heighten competitiveness in exports, but deepen inflation. A
fall in exchange rates, on the other hand, can reduce prices but weaken
competitive price of export businesses. Therefore, exchange rate policy has to
focus on reducing the rage of fluctuation. Nevertheless,
Minister Kang devastated the economic situation at the time by enforcing a high
exchange rate policy in times of high oil prices. As a result, raising the exchange
rate ultimately led to a decline in growth. The
government quickly reduced petrol taxes by 10 percent to stabilize the prices,
but this only ended up having no effect as the oil price jumped later on.
Despite the upswing in exports, the stagnation in investment continued. The rate
of increase in equipment investment for the first quarter was minus 0.4 percent
compared to that of the previous quarter. The
government is claiming that the high exchange rate policy turned the balance of
trade positive. In fact, it was because of ship exports which hit a new profit
record of 49 billion dollars. So it is hard to say that the high exchange rate
was the actual cause. The
effect of a high exchange rate on inflation is clearly showing; the rise in the
exchange rate accounted for 10 percent of import price increase in April, which
was 31 percent. Consumer prices reported on June 2nd, 2008 reached the highest
record in 6 years and 11 months. The
high exchange rate was partly responsible for GNI for the first quarter which
dropped to minus 1.2 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2007. Although
GDP for the first quarter of 2008 was 205 trillion won, the actual national
income was 180 trillion won as a loss in trade amounted 27 trillion won due to
aggravation of trade conditions. That is, a rise in the exchange rate
intensified the reducing effect of income by heavily raising the price of
imports. Declining
real incomes result in a fall in consumption, which ultimately leads to
stagnation of domestic demand. Private consumption for the first quarter of
2008 only rose 0.4 percent accelerating decline in private consumption. Another
problem that follows the high exchange rate policy is that it widens a gap
between the rich and the poor by increasing the burden on the people. In
the end, the government belatedly became aware of side effects of the high
exchange rate and intervened in the market to lead to a fall in the exchange
rates. As a result, the exchange rate of the won against the dollar has been
decreased to 1,022 won per dollar. Finance
Minister Man-Soo Kang made an announcement that the government would pay
between 60 thousand won and 240 thousand won to 13.8 million workers and small
businesses under the name of ‘tax refund.’ 9.8 million workers and 4 million
self-employed were targeted for the cash payment. The benefited workers
comprised 78 percent of total workers (13.8 million workers) and 57.5 percent
of the total economic population (24 million persons), and the benefited
self-employed comprised 98 percent of the total number (4.6 million persons). The
above-mentioned countermeasure of high oil prices is populism that is hard even
for leftists to come up with. This seemingly-generous policy can be interpreted
as a measure to settle the public sentiment, however, even communist nations
would not waste as much money as 10.5 trillion won. Meanwhile,
an official from the Ministry of Knowledge and Economy said, “It takes 2.5
trillion won to build one nuclear power plant. 10 trillion won could have
better been used to build 4 more nuclear plants in times of skyrocketing oil
prices”. [Table
1] What can be done with 10 trillion won
The
biggest factor of President Lee’s victory in the 2007 election was a pledge to
revive the economy, which was falling into recession after having gone through
the left-leaning government for 10 years. Lee’s
administration has been established claiming to stand for new liberalism and
pledging to revitalize economy. However, as the international economy and new
liberalism have been confronted by the crisis, the government appears to have
become bewildered and lost philosophy and strategy for management of the
nation. The
reason why the financial department seems so lost is that they do not have a
macroeconomic blueprint based on firm philosophy in state affairs. Not
surprisingly, MBnomics, the economic blueprint of the Lee’s administration,
seems to have become stuck at the crossroads of life and death. It’s hard to
tell whether the government is going for growth or distribution, laissez-faire
or government intervention. Neither ideology nor philosophy of a policy is
clear. (Cho-Sun Ilbo, June 14th, 2008) Meanwhile,
President Lee defined ‘pragmatism’ as follows at the inauguration on May 25th,
2008: pragmatism is a rational principle that penetrates history of west and
east and practical wisdom that plows thoughts the waves of globalization. He
added, “We have to go beyond the age of ideology and head for the ages of
pragmatism”. He also made a promise to resolve conflicts between classes and
approach the issue concerning Recent
confusion in economic policies was not caused by changing domestic and foreign
affairs. Rather, it was caused by lack of vision and philosophy for state
affairs, which led to the loss of consistency in policy making. For example, a
report titled ‘Designing a Brand Image for the President: The Search for an
Ideal Leader based on a strategic President and the Social Consensus’ showed an
ironic result that the more a ‘fair society’ is discussed the more the real
society is corrupted. The more working class-friendly the government claims to
be, the wider a gap between the rich and the poor becomes. The
key is a ‘president who deserves to be a president.’ People want a president who
offers a vision, shares social values with people, and tries to have a sincere
conversation even with people who take an opposite side. To make a reference to
the mentioned report, people no longer perceive the president as only a 7th
grade civil servant. They want a president of their own, not of a particular
group. On
the other hand, on July 10th 2011, the ruling Grand National party agreed on
lowering college tuitions, deregulation on firms, and withdrawal of reduction
in the corporate tax. This shows that the key policies of the MBnomics,
deregulation of firm and the corporate tax cuts, have been rejected by the
leaders of the party. Careful discussion and new, systematic economic policies
are required prior when the ruling party changes an economic policy line of the
administration. Otherwise, it would be an action disrespectful of both the
president and 11.5 million voters. However,
what the author is saying is far from advocacy of President Lee’s economic
policy. Rather, I have been raising my voice against the absence of consistency
in philosophy for state affairs and a narrow view of the current economic
policies. In fact, the author is pointing out that it’s the decision procedure
for policy that has gone wrong. 2.
Impoverishment of the Korean Society 1)
Five Million Poor The
poor in Korean society are more and more growing in number. The Korea Institute
for Health and Social Affairs reported that the poor of The
poor can be defined as sum of the following three strata: ① welfare recipients whose monthly income is
less than the minimum cost of living, ② the second income class whose income is lower than 120
percent of the minimum cost of living, and ③ the poverty class with no social security
benefits who are paupered due to some asset possession and their dependents. As
of May, 2005, welfare recipients in According
to the Korea National Statistical Office, the monthly income of the top 10
percent of households was 10 times higher than that of the bottom 10 percent.
The top 10 percent spend 590 thousand won a month on education, which was about
7 times that of the bottom 10 percent and twice that of the top 40 percent. The
top 10 percent’s monthly expanses on private education was 250 thousand won,
6.3 times that of the bottom 10 percent. Also, there was a huge gap in
expenditures for reading, recreation, and dining out among classes. Expanses
that the top 10 percent spent on entertainment was 7.6 times that of the bottom
10 percent and 3.2 times that of the top 40 percent. On
the other hand, households that are unable to pay for a health insurance
increased from 1.56 million in the late 2003 to 1.72 million in July, 2004 due
to a decrease in income. Also, out of 9.8 million health insurance holders, 2.4
million have been unable to pay premiums for 6 months. According to the
Ministry of Education and Human Resources Development, in 2004, there were 29-thousand
high school students who could not pay quarterly tuition fees. Those
who are incapable of paying taxes due to a loss of job or a business failure
are rapidly increasing. In June, 2004, overdue loans of financial firms and
households were 12 trillion won in total, which had increased by one trillion
won compared to 2003. People who are unable to pay off a rental house and land
they have purchased from the Korea Housing Corporation and Korea Land Corporation
are increasing as well. In July 2004, overdue housing payments were 200-billion
won, an 80-billion won increase compared to the year 2003. 2)
Increase in Personal Bankruptcy According
to ‘Money flow trend’ reported by BOK, financial liabilities of individuals in
2005 totaled 602-billion, which was 1.36 times the disposable income that year.
This means a person has to spend money that is about 1.36 times his income to
pay off his financial debt. Also, individual financial liability compared to
GDP sharply rose from 67 percent in 2002 to 74.7 percent in 2006. Insolvency of
household is worsening due to an increase in consumption, lending rates, and a
fall in mortgage value cause by a decrease in asset prices. Increase
in the number of individuals filling for bankruptcy has emerged as a new threat
to the Korean economy. The number of individuals who declared personal
bankruptcy has already doubled in number from the year of 2005 to 2006. According
to BOK, potential bankruptcies, those who haven’t yet declared bankruptcy, are
estimated to be 790-thousand. (Cho-Sun Ilbo, October 25th, 2006). Looking at
the society as a whole, personal bankruptcy may create insolvency of financial
institutions and another credit card crisis. According
to a report by the Financial Supervisory Service in Looking
back, the Asian financial crisis in 1997 can be considered a result of the
over-borrowing fund management of big companies. To elaborate, a temporary
shortage of foreign currency was caused by firms incapable of paying off
external debts. Fortunately, the Korean economy got out of the crisis with the
bail-out of the IMF and the patriotic sales of the possessed gold of the Korean
people to pay off some foreign debt. Later, the successful securing of foreign
investment and a rise in exports helped the economy strengthen its foreign
exchange reserves. The recent crisis is chronic and long-term, whereas the
Asian crisis in 2007 was acute and short-term. In
fact, unlike firms, inventories and machine equipments of which banks can take
as security, households have nothing left when asset value drops. This
situation holds the possibility of resulting in a more complex crisis. Thus, in
order to save insolvent households, business investment should be revitalized.
If the market rebounds due to deregulation, floating money will rush to stock
markets, increasing employment. This will also increase household income,
reducing debts. 3)
Increase in Divorce and Suicide Poverty
does not simply mean economic insufficiency. Poverty destroys families and
leads people to suicide. Divorce and suicide are increasing day by day.
Financial stress is responsible for a sizable proportion of divorces,
increasing from 10.7 percent in 2000 to 16.4 percent in 2003. People who
committed suicide because of business failure and poverty have sharply risen as
well. Suicide rates have been steadily increasing since the Asian crisis in
1997, and worsened lately. The year 2003 broke the 1997 record with 731 people
who took their lives out of despair for poverty. Suicides triggered by business
failures reached the highest record in 2003 as well, breaking the record of 595
in 1998. 35.5
people a day committed a suicide in 2006. The number of suicides in 2006 was 12-thousand,
which was as twice as the number of deaths from traffic accidents in the same
year. One thing to notice is that out of the number of suicides in 2006, people
over the age of 61 were 33 percent, and 31.9 percent were women. Since
the financial crisis in 2008, the number of suicide deaths in Comparing
an age distribution of suicides of the year of 2009 with that of the 1990’s,
5.4 times more men who are over 65 and 1.6 times more people aging from 25 to
44 committed suicide. It shows that suicides of the aged are rapidly
increasing, tripling those of the young. Old women are also showing the same
aspect. The poor and sick aged are choosing to kill themselves to lighten the
burden on their children. Suicides
triggered by depression are increasing as well. 20 out of 100-thousand Koreans
kill themselves – this is double the average rate of OCED countries.
Especially, it is a tragedy that suicide is the number one cause of death of
young people aged from 20 to 30. It’s a reality that saddens us, like watching
eyes of a dying deer. (Jugendlegende Begegnungen an Abend, Anton Schnack,
1892~1961) What’s
worse, psychopathic murders continue to rise. Ho-Soon Kang, a serial killer who
expressed his wish to make profits by writing a book about the murder he had
committed, reflects one side of the Mammonish (i.e.: materialistic) age we are
living in today. Families
are becoming smaller, lives are getting longer, and the income gap is widening.
If we do not deal with the current problems of the aged, Korean society will be
in danger of breaking up. Furthermore,
more and more people are likely to die in solitude. According to population
consensus data of 2011, single-person households account for 23.7 percent of
the total households. In other words, one out of four households comprise a
single individual who lives alone. This means single-person households have increased
20 years faster than NSO had predicted. What is so serious about this is that
an age group of single-person households is expanding to people ranging from
twenties to fifties; people in their 40s and 50s were 29.9 percent, and 20s and
30s were 23 percent of the total single-person household population. 4)
The Lowest Level of Social Safety Net and Social Indifference With
the world’s worst level of social safety, nuclear families are accelerating the
neglect of the aged. The aged have become the weakest class in Korean society.
In elderly society, increase of the aged is unavoidable. If no measures are
taken to solve this problem, suicide among the elderly will likely continue. Korean
society should be apologetic to all those who were swept away defenselessly by
the rush of the currency crisis in 1997, the recession in 2003, and the global
economic crisis in 2008. Koreans should also reflect on an absence of a social
system that prevents an economic crisis from causing social problems and takes
care of those in need. Although
the income gap in The
Bush administration’s plan to repeal the inheritance tax was severely
criticized. At the time, social figures who openly voiced their opposition to
the repeal of the tax were billionaires like Warren Edward Buffett, George
Soros, and William Gates senior. It was possible because there was a strong
social awareness of inheriting wealth. 5)
Lack of Noblesse Oblige and Corruption of Public Officials Despite what the rich in American
have shown, noblesse oblige is still the last thing to expect from Korean
officials. Following are examples: I strongly believe that the case of
Busan Savings Bank is the most abominable even that has ever happened in
history of People have become deeply indulged
in an idea that the government should not intervene with the market as new
liberalism swept the nation in the early 1980’s. The market can be adjusted by
itself, so it has to be left alone. However, the crisis that originated in This crisis resulted from the
government’s failure to control the economic system. The role of the government
is to create institutional devices to lead economic subjects to making fair
transactions and obey the rules of the market. In that sense, terms that are
being overused in the Korean society such as ‘business-friendly’ or
‘anti-business’ show how much our society lacks in philosophy of economy. What
is really important is not whether or not it’s ‘friendly’ nor ‘anti’, it is how
strict the government is on economic units. A number of the administrators of
the tax service, who are in charge of the pursuit of ‘taxation justice,’ resigned
or were legally dealt with. For instance, one of the retired administrators of
the tax service was arrested for taking bribery from his men. Another
administrator resigned under the suspicion that he had bribed his superior
administrator for whom he was an assistant. Three air force officers including
the Air Force Chief of Staff were charged with giving away state secrets to
Lockheed Martin on August 3rd, 2011. “Koreans just feel so despondent about the
fact that the supreme commander of the armed force has been handing over state
secrets to foreign companies. It is beyond anger, it is disgrace”. (Cho-Sun
Ilbo, August 5th, 2011) In contrast to There are also many welfare dealers
who steal subsidies that are given as a budget to build elderly care
facilities. The total welfare budget for 2009 was 74.7-billion won. It was
found that this budget had been filling the pockets of shameless welfare officials
in 130 nationwide districts, instead of going to the poor, the disabled,
jobless, and the aged. On the other hand, it seems to me
that Moreover, hoof-and-mouth disease
broke out in An-dong, in the Province of Kyoung-sang, is spreading throughout
the nation with the exception of One
of the reasons why a contagious disease among animals brings about great losses
is lack of communication among the central government, the local government,
and the industry. It eventually resulted in a failure to take immediate action
on the spread of the disease. Although the environment of Ⅴ. Concluding Remarks Since the global economic crisis, all
of us on this planet have been going through a long and cold winter. It is
expected that such pains shall be unfortunately sustained for as long a time as
the Great Depression lasted; that severe and sustained downturn dragged on from
1929-39, and did not actually recover until World War II (1939-1945). Thus we must find a way to survive
ourselves rather than to sit and wait for the world economy to recover on its
own. At the same time, we – the people -- must take some time to look back on
ourselves and reconsider the philosophy of life. We are witnessing people
buying so many clothes that they will wear only a few times, and easily buying
a car on the installment plan. The past years might have been the most
luxurious period of our time. We will have to change our society from a place
in which money and powers are the most important values to a place in which the
pursuit of a desirable human character is the top priority. The title of a
Gauguin’s piece, exhibited in an art gallery in The
author (Yang-Taek Lim, 2008, 2010, 2011) has recently proposed a new philosophy
named ‘Neopragmatism’. He reviewed the philosophy of the East with that of the
West and lighted upon the ‘realistic idea’ of the late Chosun (old name of Neopragmatism
values consequential performance as well, but puts emphasis on the means and
process of reaching a choice, i.e., how democratic the choice is. Thus, it
considers ‘morality’ more than ‘state rationality’, and thus, does not consider that truth and utility are identical. No matter how
important ‘being full and warm’ and ‘society with well-off middle class’ are,
not only should the ways in which to achieve ‘national identity’ be clearly
different, but there should also be a clear ‘national choice’. The
strategic goal of ‘a democratic society for the greatest happiness of
the greatest number’ in neopragmatism is to follow sustainable growth with full
employment, stable prices, and equitable income distribution. This is because,
as A.C. Pigou (1952) stated, ‘growth, distribution, and stability’ are the
prerequisites for maximizing welfare of a given society as a whole.
Consequently, ‘Neopragmatism’ pursues not only ‘freedom’ but also ‘equality’ in
opportunity, and furthermore ‘equity’ in income distribution. Freedom,
equality, and equity are materialized through economic and social development.
And these conflicting values can be harmonized by pursuing sustainable growth
with full employment and distribution simultaneously. The
practical method of Neopragmatism is to heighten the nation’s competitiveness
through Schumpeterian ‘Techno-Economic Development Strategy’ (Yang-Taek Lim,
2006) based on Joseph Schumpeter (1933 and 1942). In a market economy system,
the core of a nation’s competitiveness is enterprise competitiveness, which is
created by: resource competitiveness → development and manufacturing
competitiveness → quality competitiveness → market competitiveness
→ customer satisfaction. Competitiveness regarding price and non-price is
then heightened, which leads to international competitiveness, a favorable
balance of international payments, and then to coexistence and harmony of
growth, employment, and distribution. To
promote Neopragmatism, national leader’s leadership is most important, needless
to say. Three features are required for a leader. First of all, a leader should
lead factions and conflicts between them into harmony. Secondly, through
education, a leader should show new behavioral models and a will to accomplish.
Lastly, a leader should promote productivity by indicating a vision to the
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Joseph E.(2010), Freefall: [ BWW Society Home Page ] © 2011 The Bibliotheque: World Wide Society |