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Global Resources: Energy: World Primary
Energy Consumption in 2002 By Nagy Árpád Zoltán In this brief overview, the
world consumption of primary energy -- oil, gas, coal, hydro and nuclear -- is
summarized in a Table based on the 2002 data of British Petrol, which provides
basic data on a year-by-year basis. The Table comprises the above-cited
commercially traded fuels only, excluding other fuel sources such as solar,
wind, wood, peat or animal waste, which are important fuel sources in many
countries, but are unreliably documented in terms of consumption statistics.
Recent developments are mentioned in the application of the challenging fuel of
the future - hydrogen. In the Figure the "energy units" - eV,
Joules, kilocalories, Watt-hours, tons of TNT, and mass of meter converted to
energy by E= MC2 - are displayed in logarithmic scale and the most important
conversion factors are also illustrated. (Dear Editor; please remove from the Figure the
Hungarian energy consumption and replace the primary energy consumption in the
USA in 2002, together with the text): Primary energy consumption in the USA in 2002 = 2293 million tons oil equivalent = 96.3 exajoules ~
10**20 J = 97.3 quadrillion Btu 1 British thermal unit (Btu) = 1. 055 kJ ~ 1kJ One ton of oil equivalent ~ 42 gigajoules =42 GJ =
42 10**9 J 2002 in review
World consumption of primary energy increased by
2.6% in 2002, well ahead of the 10-year growth trend of 1.4% per annum.
Reported growth in energy demand of almost 20% in China was behind much of this
relative strength: energy consumption in the world, excluding China, grew by
less than 1% during the year, reflecting a second year of below-trend economic
growth. Oil
Brent oil prices averaged $25.19 per barrel in 2002,
up slightly on the 2001 average price of $24.77 and well above the post-1986
annual average of $19.40. Prices were relatively weak at the start of the year
in the wake of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, but trended upwards
over the course of 2002 on the back of OPEC production restraint and supply
disruptions involving Iraq and Venezuela. The low point in prices of around $18
per barrel was recorded in mid-January, whereas the peak of almost $32 was
registered just before the end of the year. OPEC oil production fell substantially
in 2002 for the second year running. Average production for the year was down
by more than 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) or 6.4%, following an 870,000
b/d or 2.8% decrease in 2001. The steep drop in OPEC output was the result of
output restraint and a number of unplanned disruptions to production. As in
2001, the largest fall in percentage terms was 14.4% in Iraq, which was
affected by a month-long suspension of exports from April to May and the
imposition of 'retroactive pricing' under the UN's 'Oil for Food' program. OPEC
output restraint in 2002 was a response to the sharp drop in the demand for its
oil in the face of weak global oil demand growth and the rapid expansion of oil
production outside OPEC. Oil demand in 2002 was exceptionally weak for the
third consecutive year, with consumption growing by only 290,000 b/d. Oil
production outside OPEC increased by 1.45 million b/d. The countries of the
Former Soviet Union (FSU) accounted for over half of this increase, with Russia
and Kazakhstan, up by 640,000 b/d and 150,000 b/d respectively, accounting for
nearly all the FSU's gains. Other large output increases came from Canada,
Angola and Brazil, up by 170,000 b/d, 160,000 b/d and 160,000 b/d respectively.
The oil consumption is the largest in the USA (19.7
and will be 31.8 million barrels per day in 2002 and 2025 respectively
according to EIA), but the second position of China (5.4 and 12.9 million
barrels per day) is not so evident and not so widely known in Europe. Presumably the reason is that vehicle
(including SUV) ownership in the USA was 779 vehicles per 1000 person in 2001
and 13 vehicles per 1000 person as compared to China with strong growth of
automobile use in the future. Natural gas
World consumption of natural gas grew by a
relatively strong 2.8% in 2002 on the back of a 3.9% US consumption increase
and robust growth in Non-OECD Asia Pacific of more than 7%. The US increase
followed a fall of similar magnitude the year before, as natural gas prices
moderated from 2001 levels. On the gas production side, North America was the
only region to see a decline. A price-driven drop in drilling activity
following the boom in 2001 explains some of the decrease, but the maturity of
the USA and Canada from a resource perspective also seems a contributing
factor. Another notable feature of 2002 was the first increase in Russian
production for several years, as the super-giant Zapolyarnoye field was brought
on stream. Within Europe, Norwegian output expanded strongly by 21.4% as
production from the UK and the Netherlands, down 2.6% and 3.2% respectively,
contracted. Other fuels
Coal
World coal consumption increased by 6.9% in 2002.
However, this was almost entirely a Chinese phenomenon: reported consumption in
China rose by an extraordinary 27.9%. Excluding China, world coal consumption
grew by just 0.6%, with strong growth of 3.7% in Asia (excluding China), and
modest growth in North America of 1.5%, offset by declines of 1% in Europe and
7.8% in the FSU. Nuclear Power
At the end of 2002, 362 nuclear power units were
connected to grid in OECD countries, providing approximately 24% of total
electricity supply in the OECD area. Three new nuclear units were brought into
operation: one in the Czech Republic and two in Korea; two units were retired
in the UK. Seven units were under construction: three in Japan, two in Korea,
and two in the Slovak Republic. Consumption of nuclear power rose modestly in
2002, expanding by 1.5% globally.
Nuclear power (historically started 60 year ago with the Manhattan
Project, May 5, 1943) now is representing a shrinking share of electricity
consumption despite the new constructions in Asia (India, China, etc.) and life
extensions (mainly in the USA) of the commercial reactors. In the US approach
the NRC has approved renewal of operating licenses for 18 nuclear units and has
applications under review for 12 more. US plants are initially licensed for a
period of 40 years, instead 30 years for example in Hungary. (see also Nuclear
Energy Data to 2020 in OECD Countries, Paris, June 6 2003. US nuclear operators report their 2002 operations
and maintenance (O&M) spending continued gains in generating efficiency,
producing a kilowatt-hour (kWh) for a record low median of 1.59 cents,
according to an exclusive analysis by Platts' Nucleonics Week. The most
efficient nuclear generator reporting in 2002 was Duke Power's Catawba at 1.13
cents/kWh. Other top-ranked plants were Tennessee Valley Authority's Sequoia,
Progress Energy's Harris, and Dominion Energy's North Anna and Surry, all
producing in the 1.1-1.2 cent/kWh range. Only hydroelectric and some mine-mouth
coal plants produce power for less.
Hydro
electricity
Hydroelectric generation recovered only partially
from a very weak 2001. Strong rebounds of 10.4% in North America and 4.6% in
Latin America were counteracted by weakness in Europe, which declined by 9.9%. Hydrogen The 50 million tons of hydrogen produced worldwide
each year is mostly used in fertilizer production, petroleum refining and other
industrial uses, though it's also used as rocket fuel for space programs said Moe Khaleel, director of Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory's Hydrogen and Transportation programs. But its
most promising future use will be in fuel cells, he said. A future world with
cars, trucks, homes and businesses running smoothly and emissions-free on the
fuel of the future -- hydrogen.
The United States and the European Union in June 16,
2003 in Brussels, Belgium signed a cooperation agreement to develop fuel cell
technology. The seven point plan, brokered by European Research Commissioner
Philippe Busquin and the U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, aims to
strengthen research by bringing together European and U.S. researchers from
public and private sectors. Key challenges for fuel cells to become
commercially competitive are cost reduction, improved performance and
durability. Table - Primary energy consumption in 2002, by selected countries and by fuel (in million tons oil
equivalent)
[Total primary energy
consumption in 2002 and Total primary energy consumption in 1991] References:
1)
British Petrol Statistical Review of World Energy,
June 2003 (pp.40) http://www.bp.com/centres/energy 2)
Global Resources: Energy: A Statistical Review of the World Energy Situation, BWW Journal,
2003 January/February http://fft.gau.hu/elftpm/hirek/Globalresources.htm 3)
International Energy Outlook DOE/EIA-04842003 (2003) May 2003 (pp. 260) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html 4)
This Week In Petroleum (TWIP) http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp 5)
Analytical Data Service http://www.platts.com/marketing/rdi/powerdat.shtml 6) Oil
information, 2003 http://www.nea.fr or neapub@nea.fr 7) Nuclear Energy Data to 2020 in OECD
Countries, Paris, June 6 2003 http://www.nea.fr or neapub@nea.fr 8) World
Nuclear Power Reactors 2002-2003 and Uranium Requirements 2003 June http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.htm 9) MIT RELEASES
INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDY ON "THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY (pp.167) July 29, 2003 http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/ US: The
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has published an interdisciplinary study
that examines the prospects and challenges faced by the nuclear power industry,
focused on the USA. The report says that nuclear energy has an important role
in meeting future global electricity needs without emitting carbon dioxide
(CO2) and other air pollutants. The study states that the nuclear option must
be retained 'precisely because it is an important CO2-free source of power'.
The authors urge the US to focus its attention over the next decade on building
nuclear reactors that use existing technology and a 'once-through' fuel cycle.
The study postulated a 'grow scenario' by 2050 of about 700 new reactors
worldwide, each of approximately 1000 MWe of capacity, to keep nuclear's share
of the electricity market constant. However, for a large expansion of nuclear
energy to take place, four critical areas must be addressed: better economics;
continued high security; waste management; and, proliferation issues. The
report - 'The Future of Nuclear Power' - is available at http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/.
10)
Trans-Atlantic Fuel Cell Development Pact Signed BRUSSELS, Belgium,
June 16, 2003 (ENS) http://ens-news.com/ens/jun2003/2003-06-16-04.asp 11) Fueling the future October 20th, 2003
http://www.tri-cityherald.com/tch/business/story/4206999p-4219278c.html ©Á.Z. Nagy [ BWW Society Home Page ] © 2004 The BWW Society/The Institute for the Advancement of Positive Global Solutions |
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